Afghanistan Was Always Destined To Be FUBAR'd In the End
"[N]ever go in against a Sicilian, when death is on the line!"
How, exactly, did the Biden administration’s critics think U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan was ever going to end?
“Certainly not like this” is not a valid answer, however tragic Thursday’s attacks near the Kabul airport prove to be. Please be specific. Did you envision a formal ceremony at the U.S. Embassy with the American flag being lowered and the Taliban flag raised? Did you see the Taliban waiting patiently while the U.S.-trained Afghan army escorted U.S. citizens, other NATO nationals and our Afghan collaborators to the airport for evacuation? Did you imagine that the country’s branch of the Islamic State would watch peacefully from the sidelines, or that regional warlords would renounce any hope of regaining their power, or that a nation with a centuries-old tradition of rejecting central authority would suddenly embrace it?
This is not an apologia for the tragic and chaotic scenes that have been unfolding in Kabul. Rather, it is a reality check. If there is a graceful, orderly way to abandon involvement in a brutal, unresolved civil war on the other side of the world, please cite historical precedents. I can’t find them.
There’s one basic, undeniable truth about Afghanistan: It was ALWAYS destined to end like this. It’s what happens when a military superpower undertakes a military adventure with no exit strategy. Let’s not forget that in the aftermath of 9/11, America was very much of the “rah, rah…let’s kick their ass” flavor of patriotism. We wanted revenge, we didn’t care how we got it…and few were talking about how we would extricate America from Afghanistan when all was said and done.
From the “Those who don’t know history are condemned to repeat it” department, this seems a good time to remind the studio audience that we were trying to do what had never been done. The British and the Russians had attempted to pacify Afghanistan…and had left with their collective tails between their legs. Go back even further in history, and you’ll find the same thing. Afghans are used to fighting. They’re good at it. And they don’t lose.
Anyone who knows anything of the history of Afghanistan understands that it’s less a country than a collection of warring tribes. The British drew borders around something they called “Afghanistan,” but drawing lines through rugged mountain ranges was at best an abstract concept and, at worst, meaningless. Afghanistan has never been a “country” in the Western sense, and those who’ve attempted to buck history- England, the USSR, and now the United States- have discovered that their efforts, good intentions, and money have created a spectacular kleptocracy.
All three countries went into Afghanistan thinking that they could transform it into something more to their liking. In the case of England and the United States, it was a representative democracy. For the USSR, it was a socialist paradise. But, unfortunately, in none of these cases was anything close to success possible because those who sought to “pacify” Afghanistan failed to understand the country, its history, and/or its people.
You’ve fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia[.]
Vizzini, “The Princess Bride” (Battle of Wits scene)
The biggest part of the problem for any country hoping to conquer and pacify Afghanistan is the terrain. Because of its rugged and inhospitable mountain ranges, Afghanistan doesn’t easily lend itself to conventional war-fighting tactics. Western armies (and I’ll include the Russians in this) aren’t used to fighting in unfamiliar mountainous terrain. The Taliban, for this reason alone, has long had a decided home-field advantage. Not only do they know the terrain and can use that knowledge to their advantage, but they’re also used to fighting in mountainous terrain. They’ve been doing it for generations.
It was into this breach that George W. Bush leaped in October 2001. No, Joe Biden isn’t responsible for the colossal clusterfuck that we saw on cable news over the past month or so. Instead, Bush committed America to Afghanistan with no clear exit plan. Despite the history of empires failing in Afghanistan, Bush had convinced himself that America’s involvement would be different. We would, to quote a famous Toby Keith song of the era, “put a boot in their ass; it’s the American Way.”
Unfortunately, the war in Afghanistan turned out to be brutal and messy. It wasn’t nearly the “kick-ass and take names” adventure the Bush Administration believed it would be. Pacifying Kabul, Afghanistan’s capital, was the easy part. Outside the capital, though, the war proved to be a more intractable challenge.
That challenge is what has occupied the 20 years we’ve been in Afghanistan. So when the last U.S. soldier left Afghanistan yesterday, thus ending America’s longest war, many asked, “Why?” “What did we accomplish?” “What did the loss of 2500 American lives gain us?”
I’m not certain there are good answers to any of those questions. In the case of Afghanistan, no one- not George W. Bush, Barack Obama, or Donald Trump- had the courage to commit to a plan for ending the war. Then Joe Biden made that promise during the 2020 Presidential campaign…and followed through on it yesterday.
Bertrand Russell once said that war doesn’t determine who’s right or wrong, only who’s left. In Afghanistan, our involvement didn’t leave us victorious…but it did determine who would profit from it- primarily defense contractors. As a result, billions of tax dollars were spent prosecuting the war in Afghanistan, only to hand the country over in the end to the people we’d fought for 20 years.
Yes, George W. Bush made the classic blunder of involving America in a land war in Asia. It took Joe Biden to get us out. Was our exit pretty or graceful? Of course not, but show me a war that’s been lost where the loser’s exit was pretty or graceful. You’ll be looking for a good long while because there’s never been one.
Afghanistan was ALWAYS going to end in a massive clusterfuck. That no one expected the Afghan Army to collapse as quickly as it did or for the government to dissolve at the first sign of pressure only made things that much worse.
In the end, we saw again that despite all the money America had thrown at Afghanistan, it had really only created a massively corrupt kleptocracy.
We should be thankful for the bravery and gallantry of those who served in Afghanistan. That said, I can’t help but feel that America’s political leadership viewed their service and sacrifice too casually by far. The group America defeated in 2001- the Taliban- is the new management in Afghanistan. So what did America gain from 20 years at war there?
I’m not certain there’s a good answer to that question. And that’s what I find most upsetting. But, when all is said and done, I can’t help but feel that history won’t be kind to America, whose leaders were too arrogant to learn from the British and Soviet experiences.
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