Ineptitude, lack of morale, and lack of supplies make for a lousy war effort
How Ukraine is making life miserable for the Russian army
I’m not an expert that any news network would have on to offer informed opinions about the state of the Russian army. I am, however, a decidedly amateur observer of Russian military capabilities. So when the Russians began lobbing artillery shells into Ukraine on February 24th, I, like many of those who pay attention to such things, didn’t give the Ukrainians much of a chance.
I assumed the Russians were as battle-ready and capable as they’d led us all to believe. They had overwhelming numerical superiority in virtually every category, so it seemed a foregone conclusion that Russia would quickly overwhelm a brave but futile Ukrainian resistance.
My mistake was in underestimating the collective Ukrainian refusal to be defeated by Russian bullying.
Over the first couple of months of the war, my belief in overwhelming Russian numerical superiority appeared to hold true, though it soon became clear that the Russian army was not the well-oiled machine it was believed to be. What it lacked in training, tactics, and reliable equipment, it made up for in ruthlessness and an easy willingness to violate even the most fundamental laws of war.
It also quickly became evident that Vladimir Putin and his generals gave little, if any, thought to civilians and the lives and well-being of Russia’s frontline soldiers. They were meat to be fed into the grinder- faceless, valueless peasants whose only role was to die for the fatherland Vladimir Putin.
Though they were Russian citizens, they existed only to further the interests of the corrupt quasi-Soviet state. The upper crust of the Russian social strata- the nomenklatura- never have to worry about the war touching. It is to the nomenklatura that all benefits flow, and to Putin chief among them. As the head of the corrupt mafia that controls Russia, Putin pulls the strings and controls who remains in favor and for how long.
Russia spent most of its time targeting civilian infrastructure- malls, apartment buildings, theaters, schools- the things that would create maximum terror but have little military value. The Kremlin’s leadership (save for Putin) knew that Russia’s state of readiness wouldn’t allow for a head-on conflict with Ukraine backed by billions of dollars in state of the art war materiel from the West.
Except that Russian attacks on civilian targets didn’t terrorize Ukrainians. Yes, they were horrified, but they were hardly surprised, and held up surprisingly well. Many civilians volunteered to fight and quickly learned to become soldiers.
They’ve learned to fight in ways the Russians haven’t been able to adapt to- like traveling in small units for lightning attacks and rapid retreats to which Russian units are too large to react effectively.
Over almost eight months, the world has learned that the Russian army is a paper tiger. Poorly trained, poorly equipped, and low on morale, it couldn’t even maintain supply lines next door in Ukraine.
No army can maintain a military operation without a continuous resupply operation, and the Russians have consistently maintained long, easily interdicted supply lines. The attack on Crimea’s Kerch Strait Bridge was almost inevitable. The 12-mile-long bridge is impossible to defend, but it’s the primary supply route from Russia to southern Ukraine.
So when the Ukrainians finally blew up a small section of it, it was enough to seriously complicate Russian resupply efforts. The Ukrainian Army has emphasized severing Russian supply lines, and it’s become quite good at it.
KYIV, Ukraine — A fireball consumed two sections of the only bridge linking the occupied Crimean Peninsula to Russia on Saturday, disrupting the most important supply line for Russian troops fighting in southern Ukraine and dealing an embarrassing blow to the Kremlin, which is facing continued losses on the battlefield and mounting criticism at home.
The blast and fire sent part of the 12-mile Kerch Strait bridge tumbling into the sea and killed at least three people, according to Russian authorities, who said a Ukrainian truck bomb had caused the blast.
The Ukrainian government, which applauded the damage, did not publicly take responsibility for the explosion. One senior Ukrainian official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of a ban on officials discussing the matter, said that Ukraine’s intelligence services had orchestrated the attack and that it involved a bomb loaded onto a truck that drove across the bridge.
It was unclear if the driver of the truck, who appeared to have died in the blast, was aware there were explosives inside. In video captured by a surveillance camera on the bridge, a huge fireball is seen. A small sedan and a tractor-trailer truck driving side by side appear at the epicenter of the blast.
Two days later, Russia sent 84 missiles across Ukraine, almost all into civilian targets. It looked as if the attacks, which took place at roughly the same time, were a coordinated response to the bombing of the Kerch Strait bridge. Indeed, Vladimir Putin claimed as much. But the attacks had almost certainly been planned for some time and were coincidentally set for a date and time that just happened to be after the bombing.
It strains credulity to believe the Russians could pulled together such a large coordinated missile attack on such short notice, despite what Putin claims. They lack the logistical wherewithal to be able to pull off something of that scope and scale on such a short timeline.
The general consensus now is that Russia can’t win the war. Given the losses they’ve suffered, they lack the trained fighting forces, the morale, and the materiel necessary to turn their hasty retreat into a convincing victory. The Ukrainians know it, the West knows it, and I believe the Russians know it as well. Vladimir Putin has to find a face-saving way to exit a war they never should’ve started in the first place.
Now the Russian people have to face the reality that they’ve lost thousands of their compatriots, their economy’s in the toilet, and their country’s an international pariah. All of that happened because of the monomaniacal miscalculation of Vladimir Putin, who’s probably the only one who won’t suffer any adverse consequences. No matter what happens, he’s virtually certain to be insulated from any financial, legal, and political consequences.
Ukraine WILL eventually win this war. The question that remains unanswered is what the country will look like once the Ukrainian Army is finally able to expel the last Russian soldier from their soil. The rebuilding effort will be long, arduous, and expensive, but I believe Ukrainians are prepared for that possibility if it means they’ll once against have sovereignty over their land. It’s going to require a Marshall Plan-like effort on the part of the West to help make Ukraine whole.
I suspect much of the rebuilding effort will be done with Russian funds seized by Western governments to be used for Ukraine back together. The other part of the equation that will be required to ensure that Ukraine remains safe and secure will be NATO membership. Once Ukraine is under the protection on NATO’s Rule 5, Russia will need to be far more cautious about any aggressive intentions it may have toward its neighbor.
WILL Putin use nuclear weapons? At some point, we have to act despite Putin’s bullying. Yes, we know he has nukes, but we can’t continue to allow the fear that he might use them to dissuade us from acting appropriately. No, I can’t pretend to know what “appropriately” means, but the US and its allies must continue supporting Ukraine until Russia capitulates completely. Only then will Ukraine be safe from further Russian aggression.
If it takes American troops to help secure the peace, I think that might be something worth considering. I understand and accept the reluctance to involve our young men and women in this war, but involving them in the peace after a Russian surrender seems like an investment in a more peaceful and just world.
The saddest thing about the past few months is that there was no reason for this war. The demand for war existed only in the mind of Vladimir Putin, and because of that thousands of Ukrainians and Russians have died.
And for what? In the end we’ll be back where we were on February 23, 2021- save for thousands of dead Ukrainians and Russians. And untold billions of dollars in senseless destruction done to a peaceful country for no discernible reason.
As Bertrand Russell once said: “War doesn’t determine who’s right or wrong, only who’s left.”
