War Is Not Healthy For Humans And Other Living Things
Is this how World War III starts?
God created war so that Americans would learn geography.
Mark Twain
As we watch our world teeter on the brink of World War III, we’re seeing the spectacle of war crimes playing out on our television screens. While the war in Ukraine isn’t the first war to be televised, it’s undoubtedly the first to receive the sort of 24-hour, wall-to-wall coverage it has. Yet we sit in our living rooms feeling helpless as Russia reduces a peace-loving country to rubble…and why?
That question presumes, of course, that there’s a logical, easily digestible reason behind the war, which is never the case for any armed conflict. Old men continue to invent ways to send young men to their deaths, and seldom does their sacrifice make any sense at all. Any military force runs on a hierarchy of obedience. When the order comes to go to war, those charged with prosecuting that war don’t get to ask why their lives are considered expendable. Theirs is not to wonder why; theirs is merely to do and/or die when it’s demanded of them.
While most of the world has agreed to follow an agreed-upon set of rules when conducting military operations- the Geneva Convention- Russia has made a show of violating most humane norms in the conduct of its war on Ukraine. For instance, civilians and other non-combatants are considered off-limits and not to be targeted. Yet Russia has made no effort to hide its targeting of apartment complexes and other areas of no military value. It appears that they’re trying to do the same thing in Ukraine that they did in Chechnya- lay waste to everything in its path.
The problem for Russia is that they will almost certainly achieve their objective- overrunning Ukraine, but at what cost in Russian blood and treasure? The tactics employed by Russia virtually guarantee a large number of casualties. Russian travel in tight formations, making it easier for smaller, more agile Ukrainian units to attack and flee. The Ukrainian army will not win decisive battles this way, but they will continue to inflict considerable damage upon the Russians.
As Russians head home in caskets by the thousands, how long will Russian mothers tolerate the carnage? The rising body count is what doomed the Russian occupation of Afghanistan, and the same may at some point be in store in Ukraine. The Russian Army is confronting an enemy that doesn’t want to be occupied and is willing to do whatever it takes to bleed and demoralize their occupiers.
Many Russian soldiers didn’t even know they were being sent to Ukraine until they were inside the country. There they encountered an adversary willing to fight to the death rather than capitulate to Vladimir Putin’s madness. Many more will die on both sides, but only one side has a commitment to defending what’s rightfully theirs.
It may take some time, but Ukraine will eventually prevail. Russians are fighting because they’ve been ordered to. Ukrainians are fighting for their survival and their homeland. Even if Russia does “win” in the short term, a Ukrainian resistance will continue to bleed Russia and anyone sent to govern a Russian-occupied Ukraine.
Russia will quickly discover that occupying Ukraine presents a far more complicated set of challenges than conquering the country.
The biggest long-term problem is that over two million people (roughly 5% of its population of 43 million) have fled Ukraine. Studies have shown that only 1/3 of refugees ever return home. Even if Ukrainian refugees return home, they’ll find a country that’s suffered significant damage to critical infrastructure. The supply of available housing has been reduced because of Russia targeting and destroying many apartment buildings. Water, gas, electricity, and other critical infrastructure has also suffered significant damage.
It will be years- possibly decades- before Ukraine returns to anything resembling its pre-war condition. Even with considerable assistance and humanitarian aid from the West, the country faces a monumental rebuilding task.
Of course, cleaning up the bodies, the destroyed tanks and personnel carriers, and recontructing buildings will be the easy part. The hard part will be reconstituting a free and democratic Ukraine and protecting it from further Russian aggression…and doing it without provoking World War III.
That’s if World War III hasn’t already started.
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